Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 37.683972 41.008568 44.653812 48.977848 54.007856 59.725870 66.792966
2025-02-16 32.261936 36.605821 41.710541 48.261350 56.614044 67.161314 81.935721
2025-02-23 28.944222 33.728543 39.611107 47.577645 58.431822 73.293534 96.405451
2025-03-02 26.466108 31.438020 37.756867 46.669628 59.463288 78.193803 110.145909
2025-03-09 24.686160 29.789351 36.456000 46.191839 60.825458 83.613462 126.179052
2025-03-16 22.881616 27.922113 34.637974 44.698199 60.351756 85.929201 137.414470
2025-03-23 22.338510 27.673571 34.975453 46.307349 64.834476 97.354034 171.063902
2025-03-30 21.321057 26.683605 34.158844 46.049063 66.190638 103.484162 196.451416
2025-04-06 20.327561 25.652918 33.189122 45.425666 66.791259 108.261727 221.296156
2025-04-13 19.208725 24.375393 31.761044 43.921135 65.599737 109.101491 235.803541
2025-04-20 18.918751 24.264855 32.057897 45.245013 69.758586 122.470278 300.464823
2025-04-27 18.582135 24.059851 32.185695 46.283360 73.535088 136.234034 384.725221
2025-05-04 18.021499 23.512813 31.775418 46.408394 75.644974 147.034993 477.916356
2025-05-11 17.382159 22.817183 31.088824 45.984685 76.572149 155.176391 577.921440
2025-05-18 16.757118 22.110990 30.338910 45.371553 76.991044 162.101528 693.334418
2025-05-25 16.136049 21.381486 29.507206 44.530929 76.773561 167.090669 816.211684
2025-06-01 15.636909 20.817569 28.914640 44.087532 77.407055 175.216498 1020.728725
2025-06-08 14.995436 20.006632 27.870979 42.699661 75.615753 174.434602 1115.886515
2025-06-15 14.918096 20.073672 28.297229 44.194796 81.069706 202.836555 2116.617695
2025-06-22 14.542616 19.651851 27.868317 43.954963 82.131121 214.917389 3217.639686
2025-06-29 14.133208 19.160171 27.294594 43.375865 82.221192 223.060532 4830.036747
2025-07-06 13.611719 18.471800 26.351488 41.976843 79.933664 219.409800 5472.818050
2025-07-13 13.541906 18.507393 26.668910 43.207985 85.044927 254.990779 42918.050147